Category Archive

Each presidential team in Washington arrives with high hopes to transform America and change the world. The Obama team is no different. Most of them came in as idealists, Many wanted to reverse 8 years of Bush Conservatism, some want the Bush policies to continue. Obama came in as a Center to left candidate and has move a bit more to the left then expected. The president said it best when he claimed that most new administrations face 3 or 4 major issues, however administration faces 9 or more humongous dilemmas.

Many analysts think  (Obama’s ‘war doctrine’ taking shape) that the three major pillars of his doctrine are:

1) Ramp up counterinsurgency warfare.
2) End harsh interrogation techniques.
3) Favor engagement over antagonism in dealing with overseas enemies.

In order to decipher the Obama War doctrine, we have to analyze the statements and writing of Bruce Reidel,Weinbaum, General David Petraeus, Admiral Mullen, and Bob Gates and Richard Hoolbrooke. In trying to appeal to the majority of the Americans many of them candy wrapped their earlier writings in motherhood and apple pie. Recent writings of Bruce Reidel display a hard core Neocon with aggressive PNAC type of thinking. Amazingly he was given the task of rethinking the war in Afghanistan. it is no wonder that Obama’s war in West Asia is more aggressive than Bush’s war in Afghanistan.

Obama’s foreign policy is a perpetuation of George Bush’s policy of building a global empire, and circling China. Of course it is more nuanced than the blatant aggression of Mr. Bush, but there is hardly any difference in the rhetoric or the aggressiveness on the ground. One reason is because Obama picked right wing ideologues and holdovers from the Bush Administration.

Of course there are slight differences. The WWF type of pseudo wrestling with the Israelis is a prime example of the PR which precedes Mr. Obama’s major address to the Muslim world. The policy in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Middle East remains intact with some fine tuning here and there.

The huge investment seems to indicate support for the coutnerinsurgency operations.

Look no further than Gates’ 2010 defense budget proposal for evidence of the Obama administration’s move away from conventional military force and toward irregular warfare. Specifically, Gates’ plan would:

• Increase intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities by $2 billion, including new-age Predator and Reaper drones, remote-controlled vehicles used in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan for strikes against hard-to-reach targets.
• Increase the size of the Army and Marine Corps, while halting reductions in Air Force and Navy personnel.
• Increase special operations personnel by 2,800.
• Increase the purchase of F-35 fighter jets.
• Cut spending on the F-22 and C-17 cargo planes.
• Delay the development of a new bomber.
• Cut missile defense spending.

On the surface this seems to show a dramatic shift from the Bush Administration. If one looks deeper, one will discover that this shift is simply a holdover from the last quarters of the Bush Administration. It is a natural reaction to the two counterinsurgency wars that the US if fighting in the world. A similar focus on counterinsurgency operations was witnessed during the Vietnam era. However the ground realities of the Cold War, and geopolitical truths forced an rapid expansion of weapon systems and move away from counter insurgency operations.

So the Sixty Four thousands Dollar question is, as it has always been. is the Obama administration any different for the Muslim world?

“To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect,” President Obama promised a new way way in his Jan. 20 inaugural address.

• President Bush made similar announcements from mosques and from churches. Of course this is all rhetoric. President Obama while proclaiming better relations has increase the bombing and the killings of Muslims. He has added new countries to the list and is spending more money on war on Muslims. He has not appointed even one Muslim to his cabinet. He could not find a Muslim to head up any of the major departments.
• President Obama has on paper announced the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, but the construction of the largest embassy in the world continues, and the deadlines are not sacrosanct. When all is said and done, the US forces will stay in Iraq for a very long time.
• Instead of announcing a firm date of withdrawal from Afghanistan, he went for the surge which will further impact the Pakistanis.
• His role in the Middle East is the same as that of President Bush.
• President Obama’s role in Pakistan is worse than that of President Bush both in terms of rhetoric and leaks to he media. Leading US leaders daily pontificate to the Pakistanis as if they were children, telling them who their friend are and who their enemies should be.
• Mr. Obama’s acolytes actually deliver weekly threats to Pakistan, blatant and implied.
• He announced the closing down of Gitmo, but then acqiesced to the wishes of the hardliners.
• The appointment of George Mitchell as the Middle East envoy really disappointed many people.

Doctrines used to matter during the days of President Monroe. Doctrines were for external consumption and threats. The Monroe Doctrine declared that the South America was an US sphere of influence. Today doctrines are ignored by countries like China, Russia, Israel, Venezuela and even Pakistan.

The Pakistanis are shrewd negotiators, they take hard lines, without confronting the US. They do not refute the UK, but do what is best in their interest. Despite a decade of sanctions, no power on earth could convince them to stay away from Nuclear weapons. During USSRs occupation of Afghanistan, neither the Indian mercenaries who crossed over, nor the daily bombings could make the Pakistanis withdraw their support for the insurgents fighting the USSR. The Pakistanis have not allowed to either gormandize territory nor create satellite states around her. It was Pakistan help that kept Lanka from being divided, and it was Pakistani help which keeps the Maldives as an independent nation.