Pakistan’s defense strategy remains unchanged

February 2, 2010 in Pakistan | Leave a comment

A decade of war in Afghanistan has tried to reconfigure the politics of West Asia. Some powers have tried to rearrange the geography and the boundaries. Some in Delhi had hoped that Pakistan would give up its dreams and allow existential threats to cloud its strategic objectives.

Obviously that has not happened.

General Kiyani has once again reiterated the Pakistan’s strategic depth lies in Afghanistan. However that did not mean that Pakistan wanted to control Kabul.

  • “We want a strategic depth in Afghanistan but do not want to control it,”
  • “A peaceful and friendly Afghanistan can provide Pakistan a strategic depth.”

This means that the Bharati (aka Indian) policy of death by a thousand cuts has not deterred the Pakistani resolve to ensure that the Western flank of Pakistan is free of enemies, and that the Hindu Kush mountains continue to provide depth to Pakistan’s strategic objective.

The Strategic Depth has been dicussed threadbare in Islamabad and in foreign capitals. However this is the first time that a Pakistani Army General has overtly and publicly announced the policy. It is pedagogical to note that the announcement was made in the earshot of NATO, ISAF and US Generals.

It is not a pure coincidence that Pakistan’s overt announcement was made right after the regional conference on Afghanistan which did not include Bharat (aka India). It is poignant to comprehend that Bharat got a seat on the second row at the London conference on Afghanistan–clearly defining its exclusion from a role in Kabul. An angry and incensed Delhi lodged a protest with Turkey, but could not change the mind of the several dozen countries which over ruled Bharati objections on accommodating the Taliban in Kabul.

What was said was important. However what is even more important was what was not said. Mr. Karzai did not object to Bharati exclusion from the conference in Istanbul. Mr. Karzai is fighting a battle for his political survival. He knows that his days in Kabul are numbered. The brazen attacks on Kabul and Helmand are a clear warning sign to his last days in Kabul. Mr. Karzai clearly knows which side his bread is buttered on. Any chance of reconciliation with the Taliban depends on good relations with Pakistan

RAWALPINDI: Chief of the Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said on Monday the success of military operations in the tribal regions have caused substantial decline in cross-border attacks on Nato forces in Afghanistan and warned that it was essential to address Pakistan’s long-term strategic concerns for stability in the region.

In a rare press briefing, General Kayani said it would be a cause of worry for Pakistan if Afghanistan’s projected army developed the potential to take on Pakistan.

“We want a strategic depth in Afghanistan but do not want to control it,” the general said while talking to a group of journalists at the Army General Headquarters.

“A peaceful and friendly Afghanistan can provide Pakistan a strategic depth.” He asked the US and Nato to come out with a clear strategy on Afghanistan. Kayani spells out terms for regional stability By Zahid Hussain Tuesday, 02 Feb, 2010

General Kiyani’s clear enunciation of strategic depth as a corner stone of Pakistani policy was made after his meeting with NATO commanders. It is incomprehensible that the Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) would announce a strategic decision without the total approval of NATO, ISAF and the US. President Obama’s approval of a $1.2 billion military aid package to Pakistan is a clarion call to Pakistan to help the US save face and exit from Afghanistan.

What is even more important for West Asia is the Pakistani offer of training the Afghan National Army, which would ostensibly be merged with the Taliban fighters who sign the peace treaty. This offer is a sign of the times–specially since Delhi’s similar offer was politely refused by Defence Secretary Bob Gates.

General Kayani who last week participated in Nato commanders’ conference in Brussels said Pakistan was prepared to train the Afghan National Army which would help improve relations between the two nations. He said he hoped the offer would get a positive response.

“If we get more involved with the ANA (Afghan National Army) there’s more interaction and better understanding,” General Kayani said.

“We have opened all doors … It’s a win-win for Afghanistan, the United States, Isaf and Pakistan,” he said, referring to Nato’s International Security Assistance Force.

He said he believed it would take at least four years to achieve a target of a 140,000-strong Afghan force able to take over security responsibilities.

Pakistan has raised concern over a similar offer by India to train Afghan army, and the issue could become another point of conflict between the two South Asian neighbours.

Pakistan’s offer reflects Islamabad’s rising concern over Indian influence in Afghanistan. “Our strategic paradigm needs to be fully realised,” General Kayani said.

He warned that an environment hostile to Pakistan could strain its battle against militancy and extremism. He said he had conveyed the concerns and constraints of Pakistan to the Nato allies.

“There are some key issues of the conflict that needed to be fully understood and addressed.”

He said there was a need for realisation of Pakistan’s key regional position and its contribution in the war. Kayani spells out terms for regional stability By Zahid Hussain Tuesday, 02 Feb, 2010

General Kiyani’s doctrine is Pakistan’s Monroe Doctrine. Afghanistan is clearly part and parcel of Pakistan’s sphere of influence and Bharat has been told by almost all concerned to lay-off. The Kiyani Doctrine is similar to the Zia Doctrine which clearly described Pakistan’s sphere of influence from the Indus to the Oxus and beyond. Dushanbe and Fergana are part of the ECO neural network which is being strengthed by thousands of miles of roads and rails connecting the ancestral lands of Babur and Taimur to the people of the Indus in Pakistan

General Kayani said more than 140,000 Pakistani troops were now involved in fighting militants in the northwest and deployment along the Afghan border.

He said over the last seven months Pakistani military had launched 209 major and 510 minor operations in 10 regions. He said 2,273 Pakistani army officers and soldiers had been killed in the fighting so far.

General Kayani said that the military operations in South Waziristan and Swat were at present in a transitory phase — from hold to build. “We must consolidate our gains and fully stabilise the area secured lest it fall back to the terrorists,” he said.

He warned against losing sight for future operations. “Public opinion, media support, army’s capability and resolve are fundamental to our war,” he said.

General Kayani rejected the perception that Pakistan did not want to take on the militants in North Waziristan. “There is already one army division deployed there and we have taken action whenever required,” he declared

He said it was important that the military consolidated its hold in South Waziristan and other tribal regions before starting another army offensive.

Last October the army launched a major offensive in South Waziristan which had become the main bastion of Pakistani Taliban movement and Al Qaeda.

More than 30,000 troops have been involved in the operation which is said to be the biggest since Pakistan joined the US war on terror after September 11, 2001.

The troops have cleared most of the region, but there are still pockets of resistance. Many Taliban commanders have taken refuge in neighbouring Waziristan. “We have broken the myth that Waziristan cannot be controlled,” he said.

Pakistan has been facing mounting pressure from the United States to start army operation in North Waziristan which is the base for another Taliban faction.

The US and western intelligence agencies believe the area is also a base of Afghan insurgents led by Sirajuddin Haqqani. Pakistan had signed a peace deal with the Taliban faction in 2006.

General Kayani said Pakistani military’s success in South Waziristan had sent a strong message to the militants operating in North Waziristan and other areas.

“There is, however, no need at this point to start a stream roller operation in North Waziristan.”

The army chief said the large number of casualties suffered by the Pakistani security forces and economic losses had not dented the armed forces’ resolve to fight terrorism and violent extremism. “We will fight and finish the terrorism in our own interest,” General Kayani said.

He said the intelligence sharing and greater cooperation between Pakistani military and US forces had helped improve the situation. “The regular contacts between Pakistani and US military commanders have greatly helped in understanding each others’ position.” Kayani spells out terms for regional stability By Zahid Hussain Tuesday, 02 Feb, 2010

There is a qualitative and quantitative difference between Bharati interests and Pakistani interests in Afghanistan. Bharati interests in Afghanistan is to give Delhi a second front–it is a negative, coercive, expansionist and offensive interest that perpetuates hegemony. The Pakistani interest is cultural, religious, and defensive in nature. Pakistan is the mother ship for all Pakhtuns. 40 million live in the country. Karachi is the largest Pakhtun city in the world–not Kabul. More than twice the number of Pakhtuns live in Pakistan than those who live in Afghanistan. Most of the Afghan Pakhtuns were born in Pakistan–especially in the 90s when more than 3 million lived as refugees in Pakistan. Even now more than a million Afghans live in Quetta-which give wind to the ephemeral Quetta Shura.

It is obvious that Pakistan support the Pakhtuns in Afghanistan. Wild horses could not hold the Pakistani Pakhtuns from helping the Afghan Pakhtuns most of which were born in Pakistan anyway. The bonds of tribes and kinship are a lot stronger than Dollars from Delhi (most of which were spent on Indian contractors working in Afghanistan).

Bharat will not give up Afghanistan easily. She will stand up to Turkey and protest. She will plead with NATO and ISAF. She will strong arm Karzai, and she will use her Israeli allies to put pressure on the Americans to give her a spot in Afghanistan. She will try to bifurcate Afghanistan between Pro-Pakistani Pakhtuns and other areas where Bharat may have influence. None of these machinations will work or impede the inevitable union between Pakistan and Afghanistan. When the Americans invented AfPak–it was a fortuitous omen for the one people divided artificially by the British.

$15 Billion funded through Overseas Pakistanis at $2500 per share makes Pakistan a modern nation: 58,000 new schools and 5000 hospitals for starters

December 13, 2009 in Pakistan | Tags: | Leave a comment

The Pakistani nation has hefty needs. Ignoring these needs imperils the society, region and the world. Identifying the needs of the nation: Here is one assessment, which says, its not that hard to do: About $15 Billion shatters the cycle of poverty in Pakistan and puts it on the road to higher standards.

Using the calculations done by Dr. Furrukh Saleem and putting forward a more agressive and comprehensive schedule, the Pakistani nation has these needs.

  • To put each and every Pakistani child in school we need 58,000 new schools and 163,000 new teachers. (Cost $700 million to build, $200 million to hire 163,000 new teachers)
  • To radically improve health care Pakistan needs 5000 hospitals (Cost $2.5 million per hospital for a total of $12.5 Billion). At a cost of $3 Billion per annum, we can build 1000 new hospitals per year.
  • 100 New High Courts, and 1000 new Small Claim Courts would cost $500 million
  • Indus Highway revamp and extension into Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and China. (Cost $2 Billion)
  • Railway revamp and extension into Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and China. (Cost $2 Billion)
  • Pakistanis also need 5 million homes per annum. Town Planners can set up plans for a dozen brand new cities with low income one bedroom, but well planned communities with all the facilities of a modern US subdivision.

The Turks and the Koreans built skyscrapers in “Shanti Towns” (katchi abadis) and “sold” the apartments to the residents who participated in the construction of the apartments. This provided employment, skills and training to the residents of the area–and a sense of ownership. Within a few years Seoul became a modern city.

Refreigerated Cargo facilities from the Rural Villages to the Urban towns would eliminate the wastage of food items during trucking. The Supply Chain could then be expanded to the Gulf which imports $200 Billion of food items.

Dr. Furrukh Saleem has done the basic analysis, which is a good starting point. This has to be taken to the next level and fleshed out in terms of geography and schedule.

How to fund it? Forget the Pakistani government, and forget US Aid

Who is up to the challenge? A team of dedicated professionals can create “Overseas Pakistani Organization” under Abdus Sattar Edhi, sell (5 million shares at $2,500 per share–forget the math–look at the vision) and Subcontract to President Jimmy Carter’s “Habitat for Humanity”. Pakistani-Americans could be asked for “Qarz e Hasna” for $2,500. At $200 per month, this could be funded very easily. The only impediment is transparency, honesty and integrity.

Pakistan become a modern nation in 5-10 years.

The Overseas Paksitani Foundation can fund this with very little effort. The Overseas Pakistanis can set Subcontract this huge effort to Jimmy Carter’s Non-Profit “Habitat for Humanity” and build these within a few years.

Has the government of Pakistan made a plan as to how it will spend $1.5 billion that will be coming our way courtesy the Treasury Building, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC? Has any of the provincial government undertaken a need-assessment or a need-priority exercise? If we are still planning to plant pebbles then we should not expect to harvest potatoes.

The European Recovery Programme (ERP), known as the Marshall Plan, had a total of $13 billion to be shared by Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom. The plan began in 1948 and lasted for four years. For the record: one, agriculture production in recipient countries surpassed pre-war levels. Two, the period from 1948 to 1952 “saw the fastest period of growth in European history”. Three, industrial production grew by a wholesome 35 per cent. Four, poverty took a nosedive.

What can $1.5 billion do for us? Let’s say $1 billion for education, $250 million for health and $250 million for judicial reforms. I recently saw a list of 149 countries and the number of children out of primary schools in those countries. Guess, who was at the very top of the list? Answer: Pakistan. A total of 6.3 million children out of primary schools in Pakistan followed by 2.6 million in Sudan, 1.6 million in the US, 1.3 million in Niger, 1.2 million in Cote d’Ivoire and 1.2 million in Burkina Faso.

I have done the math. Pakistan has 156,732 primary schools with 440,000 teachers and 17 million students. In order for us to put each and every Pakistani child in school we need 58,000 new schools and 163,000 new teachers. For the first year, $700 million to build, $200 million to hire 163,000 new teachers — and we will still be left with $100 million for consultants and contractors.

Here’s a group of five countries whose education spending as a percentage of their GDP is the lowest: Pakistan 1.8 per cent, the UAE 1.6 per cent, Indonesia 1.2 per cent, Ecuador 1 per cent and Equatorial Guinea 0.6 per cent. Here are the figures on female illiteracy. The worst performer is Senegal at 69.2 per cent followed by Pakistan at 69.4 per cent. Remember, ‘an ounce of mother-wit is worth a pound of school-wit’.

Next; $250 million for health. We have 965 hospitals and 107,835 registered doctors. Pakistan is the third worst performer as far as expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is concerned (the worst is Equatorial Guinea followed by Angola). We have one of the lowest numbers of physicians per unit of population, one of the highest numbers of malaria cases, one of the highest incidences of TB (181 per 100,000) and one of the lowest numbers of hospital beds per unit of population.

With $250 million a year we can build 100 new, fully-equipped hospitals every year for a total of 500 new hospitals in the following five years. Imagine; our federal government spends an equivalent of $170 million a year on health — that budget can be doubled and we will still be left with $80 million for consultants, contractors and intermediaries.

Next; $250 million for justice. Our judges are underpaid, courts are understaffed and the legal system is technologically a hundred years in the past. Our courts need a management information system, a human resources system, family courts reforms and an efficient alternative dispute resolution infrastructure. Let the ‘force of arms give place to law and justice’.

Are we failing to plan or planning to fail?

Capital suggestion, $1.5 billion per year, Sunday, December 13, 2009 Dr Farrukh Saleem

The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Email: farrukh 15@hotmail.com

Delhi in Qandhar

July 29, 2009 in China, India, Pakistan | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

Qandahar is the second largest city in Afghanistan, with a population of 250,000. It used to be on of the most important trading cities in the landlocked country. It did have an international airport and has road connections to all major cities in Afghanista–Kabul, Herat. It can also be connected to the Pakistani city of Quetta and has links to the Central Asian republics. At the time of its glory Qandahar and hills yielded the best grapes in the world. It still exports opium.

It seems like eons agon, but in the sixties Qandahar in the middle of nowhere was a cool place to visit – hashish, hookas, hippies and hash pipes. We traveled from Europe to Pakistan in the late sixties by car. On the war we met thousands of European hippies headed out to the Eastern frontiers. The Europeans came for the fun, frolic and, for the simple bazaars of Qandhar, where they could buy what no European supermarket could offer them. They came for the exotic mosques (like the Mosque of the sacred Cloak) in the city which included ancient relics–containing the cloak worn by the Prophet Mohammed.

That was several decades ago. Today Qandhar is known as terror central in the world.

Qandhar was founded by Alexander the Great two thousand five hundred years ago. The word Qandhar (or the Americanized Kandhar) is a corruption of Alexander or Sikandar, as he is known in these part.

Qandahar has been fought over by the Persians, the Turks, and the Mongols. The British occupied the city breifly in 1839 (to lose it in 1842). It again occupied it it 187, but lost it again in 1881.

The Cold war was fought right here in Qandhar. All through the 80s, which the West enjoyed peace and prosperity, Pakistan and Afghanistan were in the middle of the Cold War’s fiercest hot battles. Eventually when the Rohrabakcker sponsopred, and CIA trained Taliban prevailed in 1994, they were welcomed enthusiastically in the city of grapes and hashish.

Qandhar was the first city to be attacked by the Americans in 2nd Afghan war. Today the city is on the Bharati trail of terror that extends from Tajikistan to Afghanistan and then rears its ugly head in Pakistani Baluchistan, Iranian Sistan-Balauchistan. RAW assists Junduallah from this terror base, and supports the TTP terrorists from this city.

RAW [Research and Analysis Wing] is settling scores with the ISI in Afghanistan and perhaps Baluchistan. Aqil Shah: Foreign Policy Magazine. March 2009

There is a terror network in Afghanistan. Many analysts have provided robust proof of the Bharati involvement in Afghanistan. Penury stricken Delhi didn’t spend about a Billion Dollars in Afghanistan so that the investment would eliminate the slums of Mumbai or feed the Dalits. India spent the money in Afghanistan so that it could build a base of operations against Pakistan. One of the prime directives of the RAW was to destabilize Pakistan. Asif Haroon Raja sheds light on the developments in Afghanistan and RAWs machinations in Kabul. It is run by Delhi. Officially there are only 4 Consulates and 13 “Information Centers“. But each fake “Consulate” has “Consular offices“, and each “Information center” has “Sub-sections” and “Desks”. In addition the Indian companies that are working in Afghanistan allow the Indian RAW agencies open access to the facilities and the offices. Anatomy of Indian Intelligence Services and Alliances.

We have substantiated our views via several independent sources.

I think it would be a mistake to completely disregard Pakistan’s regional perceptions due to doubts about Indian competence in executing covert operations. That misses the point entirely. And I think it is unfair to dismiss the notion that Pakistan’s apprehensions about Afghanistan stem in part from its security competition with India. Having visited the Indian mission in Zahedan, Iran, I can assure you they are not issuing visas as the main activity! Moreover, India has run operations from its mission in Mazar (through which it supported the Northern Alliance) and is likely doing so from the other consulates it has reopened in Jalalabad and Qandahar along the border. Indian officials have told me privately that they are pumping money into Baluchistan. Kabul has encouraged India to engage in provocative activities such as using the Border Roads Organization to build sensitive parts of the Ring Road and use the Indo-Tibetan police force for security. It is also building schools on a sensitive part of the border in Kunar–across from Bajaur. Kabul’s motivations for encouraging these activities are as obvious as India’s interest in engaging in them. Christine Fair: Foreign Policy Magazine. March 2009

The “Consulates” train agents, and then send them across the border to sabotage and create general mayhem among the population. The purpose of these operations is the same as it always has been. RAW used similar facilities to bomb Pakistani cities in the 80s. It is now using the same bases for similar bloody acts of sabotage. RAW activities in varous countries in South Asia. Nepal view: RAW’s Machination In South Asia.
History is on the side of the skeptics in Afghanistan, where from Alexander the Great to the Soviets, all foreign invaders have eventually been repelledBy Richard Halloran Tuesday, Oct 14, 2008, Page 9

Some try to proclaim the the Afghan resistance is a monolith movement called “Taliban”. It is actually 38 separate movements led by a large spectrum of anti-occupation forces which also include some remnant of the old Taliban. It is ironic that the taliban created by the USA, recognized by the Saudis, the UAE and the Pakistanis were initially created by the CIA (see Congressman Rohrabakers statements on this site).

Indian Consulates in Afghansitan training terrorists and sending them to Pakistan to blow up pipelines in BaluchistanIndian diplomats and RAW officials with the help of Northern Alliance have significant ingress in the Afghan ministry of tribal affairs. They are exploiting the ministry to conduct covert activities against Islamabad and creating rifts between the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indian agents are instrumental in arranging meetings of tribal elders and Afghans with dual nationalities with Indian consulate officials in Jalalabad and assisting them in recruiting agents from Pakistan’s tribal areas for activities prejudicial to Pakistan’s interests. India’s new colony by Furzana Shaheen

Nepal view: RAW’s Machination In South Asia. Here is Hamid Mir’s current column in The News shedding light on the role of Qandhar in the terror activities in Pakistan.

I remember that many Indian journalists were shocked after reading the joint statement. They started asking me that why Balochistan is mentioned in the statement? In fact many of them were not aware like many common Indians that what is going on in Balochistan. Within a few hours I started receiving calls from many Indian TV channels that what evidence was shown by Pakistan to Manmohan Singh about the alleged Indian involvement in Balochistan? In fact the Pakistani prime minister did mention Balochistan to Manmohan Singh but he never handed over any dossier to his Indian counterpart.

The situation in Balochistan came under detailed discussion during the first meeting of the foreign secretaries in the evening of July 14 in Sharm el-Sheikh which took place two days before the meeting of Manmohan and Yousaf Raza Gilani. Pakistani foreign secretary Salman Bashir told Shiv Shankar Menon that India must delink the talks from terrorism otherwise Pakistan will be forced to produce at least “three Indian Ajmal Kasab’s” in front of international media who were directly or indirectly part of the terrorist activities in Balochistan and Pakistan will easily establish that Indian consulate in Afghan city of Kandhar is actually a control room of all the terrorist activities organised by the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army.

Salman Bashir told Indian foreign secretary that both Pakistan and India cannot afford a blame game right now. If Pakistan will come out with evidence that Indians are responsible for attacking Chinese engineers in the Gwadar port city it may damage Indian credibility on one side but it will also spread more anti-India feelings in Pakistan and extremist forces will be the ultimate beneficiaries.

Pakistan is [...]e against the Indian involvement in Balochistan insurgency in a very careful, well-calculated and “limited manner.” Recently a prominent US magazine Foreign Affairs (March 2009) published the report of a roundtable discussion on the causes of instability in Pakistan. Christine Fair of RAND Corporation clearly said in that discussion that “having visited the Indian mission in Zahedan, Iran, I can assure you they are not issuing visas as the main activity. Indian officials have told me privately that they are pumping money into Balochistan.”

Central Asia tajikistan Pakistan with RAW trail of terrorThis allegation came from a very credible American scholar who recently visited Indian consulate in Zahedan. Now where is Zahedan? It is the capital of Iranian province Sistan-o-Balochistan bordering Pakistan. More than two million Balochis live in the Iranian side of Balochistan. Iran is building a big port of Chabahar in the same area with the active help of India. Top Iranian leaders have alleged many times that American CIA is supporting Iranian Balochis to destabilise the Islamic Republic. Famous American journalist Seymour Hersh admitted in July 2008 that Bush administration gave million of dollars to a separatist Iranian group “Jandallah” which is responsible for violence in Iranian part of Baluchistan. Balochistan and India, Wednesday, July 29, 2009, Hamid Mir

Senior US diplomat William Burns gave Indian officials a terse and cryptic directive on Thursday. ”Shut down Indian Consulates in Afghanistan, reduce presence in Kabul and stop sending mercenaries across the Durand Line.” This message was supplemented with a letter from President Barack Obama to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The message in the letter was the same. India has few options now. It can accept the US diktat or it can defy it. If Delhi defies American warnings and polite talk, then NATO and ISAF will stop providing the necessary security to the nest of spies and saboteurs known as “Consulates”. Rupee News broke the news about the letter from Presidetn Barack Obama before Indian agencies began reporting the frank and blunt message.

A US diplomat has handed India a letter from US President Barack Obama about US-Indian ties that also touched on efforts to stabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan, US officials said Wednesday. Envoy Richard Holbrooke, briefing reporters on his own visit to Pakistan and Gulf Arab states last week, said US diplomat William Burns delivered the letter after arriving in Delhi overnight Tuesday but declined to divulge its contents. “This administration believes that what happens in Afghanistan and Pakistan is of vital interest to our national security, and … that India is a country that we must keep in closest consultation with,” Holbrooke said. Holbrooke added that Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, is carrying a private presidential letter “that I would have carried if I had the time to go to Delhi on this trip but I couldn’t do it.” Obama letter handed to India amid consultations on Pak. The Nation

Shutting down the Consulates is not enough. The Bharati base in Tajikistan also has to be shut down.

Tajikistan map Indian base-Indian Consulates-dens of Inequity
Washington has publicly and privately asked Delhi to improve relations with Islamabad so that the Pakistani armed forces can concentrate on the Western borders. At this critical juncture when a US surge is going to place additional pressure on Durand Line, the Obama Administration wants Delhi to help ease the tensions and reduce the level of rhetoric. In a highly unusual step the American Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan has handed over a letter from President Obama to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. It has already been established that the meeting was about Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is widely understood in diplomatic circles that the US wants India to back off on its so called demands. The blunt message came after the U S Treasury secretary visited China and came back with Beijing’s displeasure at the continued Indian support for the TTP in Swat.

United News of India quoted unnamed sources as saying that the US had asked India to ‘close or prune down’ its consulate in Jalalabad in Afghanistan following allegations by Pakistan that it was ‘creating trouble’ in the border areas of NWFP and Balochistan.

UNI said Pakistan had alleged that the Indian consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar were ‘fomenting trouble’ in NWFP and Balochistan bordering Afghanistan by providing financial and material support to fugitives in the two border provinces. The sources said besides asking India to resume talks with Pakistan, the US was also trying to convey to Indian authorities its views on closing or pruning the Indian Consulate in Jalalabad…. Dawn

Delhi has to tone down its rhetoric on terror. Islamabad and the world knows who is behind the TTP in Swat. If Delhi wants peace with Pakistan, it has to pull back in Afghanistan and Swat. It has to make major territorial concessions in Kashmir and the border areas. Once the border disputes have been resolved, the sky is the limit in cooperation with Pakistan. Sir Creek and Siachin have to solved and resolved quickly. Once Kashmir is resolved in accordance with the UN resolutions and the wishes of the Kashmiri people, the Pakistan government will find to problem in helping Bharat gain trans-national travel through Pakistan. However this has to be on a mutual basis which would allow Pakistani truck to reach Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh. Bharat must live up to the letter and the spirit of the Indus Water treaty and begin treating Pakistanis are friends rather than enemies.

NEW DELHI: Senior US diplomat William Burns gave Indian officials a wish-list on Thursday that aims to revive India-Pakistan peace talks, assures New Delhi of its vital role in Washington’s strategy in the region, and retrieves the hope for Kashmiri people to shape their own destiny.

Local reports quoted unnamed sources as saying that the visiting US Under-Secretary of State also asked his interlocutors to trim India’s consulate in Jalalabad, which Pakistan sees as a distraction in the military campaign against Muslim extremists on the Afghan border. Dawn

There are many types of peace. It is obvious that India has neither the capacity nor the wherewithal to impose peace of the sort that exists between the Native Americans and the US government. India is not Israel and Pakistan is not the Gaza strip. If Israel with all its might could not force an unequal peace on unequal partners (Syria, Palestinians and Lebanon) it is also very obvious that Delhi cannot impose peace on Pakistan the same way. Bharat could not break up Lanka and make it Kowtow to Bharat. It cannot force Pakistan. It has to woo Pakistanis if she wants peace on her Western borders.

There is much in common between India and Pakistan, but there is much that separates the countries. Mere cultural affinity and anathema to religion cannot wish the differences away. Bharat must recognize that Pakistanis do not see Delhi as the perfect model to emulate on anything. Therefore Delhi must stop wishing for a Pakistan in its own image. There are many routes to success, and Pakistanis admire the Chinese a lot more than they admire Indians.

The Obama Doctrine

June 3, 2009 in USA | Tags: | 1 comment

Each presidential team in Washington arrives with high hopes to transform America and change the world. The Obama team is no different. Most of them came in as idealists, Many wanted to reverse 8 years of Bush Conservatism, some want the Bush policies to continue. Obama came in as a Center to left candidate and has move a bit more to the left then expected. The president said it best when he claimed that most new administrations face 3 or 4 major issues, however administration faces 9 or more humongous dilemmas.

Many analysts think  (Obama’s ‘war doctrine’ taking shape) that the three major pillars of his doctrine are:

1) Ramp up counterinsurgency warfare.
2) End harsh interrogation techniques.
3) Favor engagement over antagonism in dealing with overseas enemies.

In order to decipher the Obama War doctrine, we have to analyze the statements and writing of Bruce Reidel,Weinbaum, General David Petraeus, Admiral Mullen, and Bob Gates and Richard Hoolbrooke. In trying to appeal to the majority of the Americans many of them candy wrapped their earlier writings in motherhood and apple pie. Recent writings of Bruce Reidel display a hard core Neocon with aggressive PNAC type of thinking. Amazingly he was given the task of rethinking the war in Afghanistan. it is no wonder that Obama’s war in West Asia is more aggressive than Bush’s war in Afghanistan.

Obama’s foreign policy is a perpetuation of George Bush’s policy of building a global empire, and circling China. Of course it is more nuanced than the blatant aggression of Mr. Bush, but there is hardly any difference in the rhetoric or the aggressiveness on the ground. One reason is because Obama picked right wing ideologues and holdovers from the Bush Administration.

Of course there are slight differences. The WWF type of pseudo wrestling with the Israelis is a prime example of the PR which precedes Mr. Obama’s major address to the Muslim world. The policy in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Middle East remains intact with some fine tuning here and there.

The huge investment seems to indicate support for the coutnerinsurgency operations.

Look no further than Gates’ 2010 defense budget proposal for evidence of the Obama administration’s move away from conventional military force and toward irregular warfare. Specifically, Gates’ plan would:

 

• Increase intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities by $2 billion, including new-age Predator and Reaper drones, remote-controlled vehicles used in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan for strikes against hard-to-reach targets.
• Increase the size of the Army and Marine Corps, while halting reductions in Air Force and Navy personnel.
• Increase special operations personnel by 2,800.
• Increase the purchase of F-35 fighter jets.
• Cut spending on the F-22 and C-17 cargo planes.
• Delay the development of a new bomber.
• Cut missile defense spending.

On the surface this seems to show a dramatic shift from the Bush Administration. If one looks deeper, one will discover that this shift is simply a holdover from the last quarters of the Bush Administration. It is a natural reaction to the two counterinsurgency wars that the US if fighting in the world. A similar focus on counterinsurgency operations was witnessed during the Vietnam era. However the ground realities of the Cold War, and geopolitical truths forced an rapid expansion of weapon systems and move away from counter insurgency operations.

So the Sixty Four thousands Dollar question is, as it has always been. is the Obama administration any different for the Muslim world?

“To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect,” President Obama promised a new way way in his Jan. 20 inaugural address.

  • President Bush made similar announcements from mosques and from churches. Of course this is all rhetoric. President Obama while proclaiming better relations has increase the bombing and the killings of Muslims. He has added new countries to the list and is spending more money on war on Muslims. He has not appointed even one Muslim to his cabinet. He could not find a Muslim to head up any of the major departments.
  • President Obama has on paper announced the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, but the construction of the largest embassy in the world continues, and the deadlines are not sacrosanct. When all is said and done, the US forces will stay in Iraq for a very long time.
  • Instead of announcing a firm date of withdrawal from Afghanistan, he went for the surge which will further impact the Pakistanis.
  • His role in the Middle East is the same as that of President Bush.
  • President Obama’s role in Pakistan is worse than that of President Bush both in terms of rhetoric and leaks to he media. Leading US leaders daily pontificate to the Pakistanis as if they were children, telling them who their friend are and who their enemies should be.
  • Mr. Obama’s acolytes actually deliver weekly threats to Pakistan, blatant and implied.
  • He announced the closing down of Gitmo, but then acqiesced to the wishes of the hardliners.
  • The appointment of George Mitchell as the Middle East envoy really disappointed many people.

Doctrines used to matter during the days of President Monroe. Doctrines were for external consumption and threats. The Monroe Doctrine declared that the South America was an US sphere of influence. Today doctrines are ignored by countries like China, Russia, Israel, Venezuela and even Pakistan.

The Pakistanis are shrewd negotiators, they take hard lines, without confronting the US. They do not refute the UK, but do what is best in their interest. Despite a decade of sanctions, no power on earth could convince them to stay away from Nuclear weapons. During USSRs occupation of Afghanistan, neither the Indian mercenaries who crossed over, nor the daily bombings could make the Pakistanis withdraw their support for the insurgents fighting the USSR. The Pakistanis have not allowed to either gormandize territory nor create satellite states around her. It was Pakistan help that kept Lanka from being divided, and it was Pakistani help which keeps the Maldives as an independent nation.

Academics Business Directory - BTS Local

Needs of the Pakistanis for a Digital Pakistan

January 2, 2009 in Pakistan | Tags: , , | 3 comments

DIGITAL PAKISTAN

The first step towards a “Digital Pakistan” is the establishment of goals for the next five years, the next ten years and the next generation.

Past US presidents established the goal to build a network of roads, railroads, and a goal to reach the moon. Other presidents established goals to place all documents on the internet.

If we do not have a vision we will never be able to get there. A Digital Pakistan is the vision of the next decade and beyond. Each successive generation can and must establish a vision and then work hard to achieve it.

This is one version of the “Digital Pakistan” that is the right of the next generation.

NEEDS OF THE PAKISTANI NATION

Without a lot of ceremony, here is a list of requirements of the Pakistani nation:

1. For our role in the proxy wars of the past century Pakistanis deserve the following. Here a bill to be handed over to “the powers to be”.

2. We want Bullet Trains running from the Karakorum’s and beyond to Gwader and beyond.

3. We want a modern train system and underground railways for our cities.

4. We want Water and sewage lines in our major cities and our towns and villages.

5. We want 1000 proper schools for our children and we want $100 million

6. 2500 brand new world class hospitals. $ 1 Billion million.

7. Compare to the USA: (Total Number of all U.S. registered hospitals: 5759

8. Total staffed beds in all U.S. registered hospitals: 955,768

9. Teach Urdu, English, Farsi, Arabic and Chinese in all schools. Also optional languages Punjabi, Kashmiri, Pahari, Hindkoh, Saraki, Pushto, Baluchi, Brahvi, Sindhi, Darri, Potohari. $ 50 million

10. We want 500 modern libraries spread all over the country. Build a library larger than the one in Alexandria. $250 million compare to 117,378 libraries in the USA

11. We want a Motorway system to link all cities of Pakistan, North and South, East and West. $10 billion

12. We need 10 new major airports linked by High Speed Trains. $10 Billion

13. We want 50 million “$100 computers” for Pakistanis in Urdu and all local languages. $100 million

14. We want “kachi abadis” to disappear from our cities. We want to see skyscraper and government housing for all the poor who can be used for labor to build the building. $ 5 Billion

15. We want 100 power plants to eliminate the shortage of electricity in the country.$ 500 million

16. We want 5 major dams and 100 minor dams to prevent the acute water shortage in the country. $ 500 million

17. We want 100 ships for the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation so that Pakistan can become a major sea faring nation able to handle the trade. $ 5 Billion

18. We have to quadruple the yield for our Cotton, Milk and Wheat production benchmarked against the USA, Australia and Canada. $1 Billion

19. Get ship load of Sri Lankan teachers to eliminate illiteracy in Pakistan. $ 10 million

20. Get boatloads of Malaysian manufacturers to setup electronic manufacturing in Pakistan

21. Get train loads of Koreans to build 10 new planned cities in Pakistan. $ 10 Billion

22. Get a plane load of the Swiss to build world class ski resorts and amusement parks and develop our archeological sites as wonders of the world. $ 2 Billion

23. Get busloads of Chinese to build industrial parks in Pakistan. $ 10 Billion

24. We want to reclaim millions of acres of desert in Baluchsitan for our future generations. $ 3 Billion

25. And Oh! Yes Northern Areas are part and parcel of Pakistan not to be bartered away to anyone. Don’t even think of giving up Kashmir!

26. Does this list look expensive? Not really. The cost of all this is in the league of $38 Billion that was offered to Turkey for transit rights into Iraq, which the Turkish parliament turned down. Even if it double or triple that amount, we deserve it.

27. Pakistan’s largest Park Ayub National Park is today a moth eaten park. General Ayub Khan stole half of it for golf. Other military orfficers and others took portions of the park and build their homes. The park needs to be restored to its original boundries and all illegal construction needs to be demolished. Vast areas in Balauchistan, the Norhtern Areas, Punajb and Sindh need to be designated as Pakistan National Parks on the lines of the US National Parks. No construction would be allowed on the large national parks.

28. Development of Horticulture: Pakistan has the means to develop the production of roses and other horticultural materials that can be exported in frozen format to countries in Europe and the US. The flower market is a multi-billion Dollar market and needs to be expoited.

29. PTV needs to be revamped so that it can provide information and entertainment to the Middle East, Africa and Europe. If Al Jazeera and Press TV can do it, so can Pakistan.

30. Pakistan needs to actively participate in Clinical Research Trials which is a multi-billion Dollar industry.

LET US FOCUS ONLY ON EDUCATION FOR STARTERS:
1) Malaysia focused on primary schools, and Ghana focused on Higher education. For the first 20 years after independence Malaysia did not build any universities at all. Malaysia built primary and secondary schools. The results have shown phenomenal growth for education in Malaysia and dismal results in Ghana.

2) Sri Lanka a country ridden with an ongoing civil war as well as penury stricken population and poverty laden infrastructure was able to life the country out of illiteracy and today has the highest literacy rates in Asia as well one of the highest literacy rates in the world.

3) Abdus Sattar Edhi lives in a corrupt society where the government in unable and unwilling to provide social benefits to its population. Abdus Sattar Edhi runs a fleet of more than 500 ambulances, helicopters and planes. He also has orphanages, women’s shelters, and provides death and burial services to the poor in all urban centers of Pakistan. He is scrupulously honest. He has received many international awards and boasted that his personal account has more than $85 million. Edhi sleeps in his office and wears the clothes donated by the family of a dead person for 10 days
His organization needs to be duplicated.

4) Bangladesh after the trauma of 1971 asked all of its graduates to devote 1 year of their lives. They would only receive a degree if they made sure that two illiterate people would become literate. Paksitan should force all intermediate to educate 5 people and all graduates to educate and make literate 10 people before they can get degrees. NADRA should ensure that there is no duplication of people and there is no fraud.

5) Cuba is one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. It also has one of the best and most comprehensive medical systems in the world. All Cubans are educated and have good medical attention. Hundreds of Cuban volunteers stayed in Pakistan in the earthquake. Cuba and Pakistan established diplomatic relations and Cuba offered 1000 fully paid scholarships to Pakistanis. This system has to be institutionalized and Pakistan needs to learn from Cuba.

6) Karachi has one of the highest literacy in the nation. All Karachi schools run in double shifts and have been running on double shifts for more than 40 years. The Muhajirs have almost a 100% literacy rate. All Pakistani government schools must run on double shifts.

7) Bangladesh developed the Grameen Bank. A lot of this has been discussed on this low cost lending system, but the fact remains that this is the “Committee system” used by urban and rural housewives for generations. Grameen offers small loans, mainly to women. Grameen boasts a non-existent default rate because the five or ten members in the “committee” depend on the person to return the loan. This has improved the conditions of the poorest.

8) Turkey has used the capitalist system to eliminate “katchi abadis”, by developing partnerships with the public and private sectors. All the residents of a “katchi abadi” are registered. This list is frozen. Some elected representatives are chosen to work with the government for regularization of the land. The land is used as collateral to get a load to build a new village which includes

a) a school

 b) a hospital

c) a shopping mall

d) a mosque

e) and a high rise building which provides basic amnesties to all the residents. The “katchi abadi” residents cannot sell the land or the building. This goes into a trust. The shops generate funds for the community and a certain number of apartments are sold to the general public and rented to the general public to generate funds for the building. All “katchi abadi” residents thus get decent housing, eyesores are eliminated from the cities, and the venture is commercially feasible.

9) A list needs to be generated of all government run schools. These need to be mapped. All ghost schools need to be listed and identified in a database posted on the internet.

10) Every district has to be identified where schools do not exist.

11) A central Education Emergency Center (EEC)* office needs to be established in every district to create lists of all illiterate persons in the district. The EEC office also lists all children in the district, especially the mother of girls in a database. * Need to think of a good name IN URDU & LOCAL LANGUAGES FOR THE EEC.

12) The EEC Iqra (Insaf *** R*** Area) sets up adult literacy training to all the mothers and adults as well as the children.

13) The EEC establishes schools in one room homes or open air schools, and even under peepal trees or tents. Initially the EEC may use government buildings to train adults and mothers and children in the 2nd shift. As funding becomes available the schools will have an infrastructure. Where possible, the EEC schools will build its own schools

14) The EEC establishes FM radio network and a TV channel for adult education. Australian children who cannot commute to schools used to be taught via CB radios and HAM radios. Today this can and must be established via the internet.

15) Many organizations have created products for the 3rd world a) Hand cranked laptops hooked to network by peer-to-peer network b) solar ovens c) solar powered refrigerator d) cheap toilets d) biogas generators e) wind power tube wells. All of these and others have to listed, prioritized and used in the EEC centers

16) The EEC must set up votechnical centers to teach adults and children basic skills in

a) plumbing

b) woodworking/carpentry

c) electrical works

d) computer assembly

e) Improving harvesting techniques

f) Supply chain improvement and Storage improvement of vegetables and fruits

g) Identification of better seeds, and informing farmers about the better seeds to improve per hector yields

Pakistan’s vision 2020: A PMs view

January 1, 2009 in Pakistan | Tags: | Leave a comment

Irregardless of ones political views, it is a fact that the past decade witnessed unprecendented economic growth of the Pakistani economy. The previous growth spurt was in the 60s when Korean economic teams came to emulate the decade of development (1958-1968). Other periods saw economic development at around 5% which is also what Pakistan has in store for the newxt few months.

Though much maligned in the Pakistani press, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has some good insight into the way forward for Pakistan. Even if we eliminate his political defense, it is pedagogical to understand the points listed in his advice to the current government of Pakistan.

For serious researchers into political and economic thought, we would like to intoduce our readers to Pakistan’s Vision 2020. Many will be surprised that stapins.org already contains these and other suggestions.

http://stapins.wordpress.com/2008/01/07/pakistan-vision-2020/

A more detailed report has been prepared for Pakistani Policticians. This password protected report is presented here:

Protected: POLSPPOL:Halting the march towards Irrelevancy:-Political Strategies for Pakistani Politicians (http://stapins.wordpress.com/2008/12/07/polspolhalting-the-march-towards-irrelevancy-political-strategies-for-pakistani-politicians/)

1) Shaukat Aziz is right on most counts, however we veciferously disagree with him on denationalizing the Steel Mill and OGDC. The Indian and Chinese OGDCs are buying exploration rights all over Africa and the world. The Pakistani OGDC should be competing with them and securing oil supplies for Pakistan in distant lands. The Sir Creek Area has to be opened up for exploration immediately

2) The Pakistan Steel Mill is a national asset without which the nuclear and missile program would not have been possible. Both Russia and China are ready to double and triple its production. Pakistan can and should upgrade the steel mill and export steel utilizing the potential of the Pakistani ship breaking industry (which was the largest in the world–destroyed by the owner of Ittifaq Foundry during his premiership).

3) I agree with the numbers and the assessment that Dar was the worst thing that happened to Pakistan first in the 90s and then again in 2008. Jan-March the Pakistan Stock Market was the best in terms of growth on the planet. After Dar started spewing his garbage, it fell and fell hard.

4) The article is a bit dated. Oil prices are not an issue anymore. Inflation will subside if the country stops printing money and eliminates deficit spending. There should be a constitutional amendment to prohibit deficit spending. Foreign Aid should never be used for deficit financing–only for investment projects.

5) The dams are very important for Pakistan. All six dams should be built. The WB is ready to begin financing them.

6) One of the biggest achievements for Pakistan was the FTA with China. This has to be utilized to the hilt. An FTA has to be negotiated with the USA.

7) The article does not mention the $200 billion potential as food granary of the Middle East or the $100 billion potential as “The Mekan Coast” and does not really discuss the potential of Coal in detail. Pakistan has the 4th largest reserves of coal and this translates to three times the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. The article does not discuss improving primary education with the help of Sri Lanka and even Bangladesh. It does focus on the nine international universities but does not mention the potential for Pakistani Medical universities built on the pattern of Cuban Medical colleges and the Cuban medical system (one of the best in the 3rd world).

8) Pakistan should kill the IPI pipeline, purchase all the gas from Iran and then containerize it as CNG/LPG and sell it in the international market. If India wants to buy the CNG it can pay in Dollars. The original transit fees wa s $1 Billion. Indian has whittled it down to less than $100 million. Pakistan does not need the headache for $100 million. It is useless. For security reasons Pakistan must not link its economy to India in any way. Already India has started stopping the water to Pakistan 

STAPINS stapins.org has already discussed many of the points listed below in our summary document on this link http://stapins.wordpress.com/2008/01/07/pakistan-vision-2020/

The Economic Way forward By Shaukat Aziz (former Prime Minister of Pakistan)

When I was asked to write a piece on the economic way forward, I hesitated at first because I felt that with a new government in place it is better that we leave the way forward to the new economic managers rather than play the role of back seat drivers and provide unsolicited advise. But the mountain of criticism of the previous government policies from all sorts of arm chair critics, ranging from retired bureaucrats and economists of the cold war era who still believe in the supremacy of state management of the economy and for whom Venezuela and Bolivia are the new role models, to islamists who feel that the entire western global economic system is doomed and we need to chalk out a new paradigm, convinced me that perhaps the time had come to analyze the past and set the record straight, assess the current situation and contribute to the debate on the way forward.

Now that we have the political parties of the nineties back in power it can be instructive to examine a few economic indicators of the nineties with the past eight years and draw inferences. Since the economic growth numbers have been challenged by the critics. I will
use numbers that are not subject to disagreement. So for example, if the GDP growth numbers are being challenged other growth indicators that the public can understand can show the reality.

The official GDP growth from around US $ 65 billion in 1999-2000 to US$ 165 billion in 2007-08 (a factor of 2.5 times) is challenged as being fudged but growth of credit to the private sector over the same time period from Rs one trillion to Rs 2.5 trillion, again a factor of 2.5 times, cannot be challenged.

The data shows that while electricity consumption grew by 1300 Gwh per year in the decade of the nineties it grew by 3750 Gwh per year from 2000 to 2008 a factor of 2.8 times. Gas consumption grew by 20 billion cft per year in the nineties compared with 80 billion cft per year from 2000 to 2007 a factor of four times. The revenue collection by FBR increased from Rs 300 billion in 1999 to over one trillion in 2008 Foreign investment that averaged around $ 500 million per year in the nineties touched over $ 8 billion in 2008 alone. Remittances that were around one billion in 1999 have crossed six billion in 2008.

Development spending that was US$ 1.5 billion in 1999 touched $7.5 billion in 2007. Exports that were 7.5 billion in 1999 reached $18 billion in 2007. Foreign exchange reserves that were around a billion dollars in 1999 reached over 16 billion in 2007.

Stock market index that was around 1300 in 1999 touched its highest level of 15700 in April 2008 a factor of 12 times that placed the KSE as one of the best performing stock markets of the world. The exchange rate showed remarkable stability over the past eight years. Credit rating improved from selective default in 1999 to B+ and B1 by 2007.

Since the February elections and the advent of the new government economic indicators have sharply deteriorated. The Currency has fallen by 25 percent against the Dollar, the stock market index has fallen by 6700 points from its peak in April leading to an asset value loss of 43 percent amounting to loss of market capitalization of around US $ 40 billion; the largest loss in the history of Pakistan. This loss of confidence in the economy of Pakistan has been unprecedented

We can trace the loss of confidence by the foreign investor by examining the spread on the US dollar global bonds that we issued in May 2007. These bonds were issued at the start of the lawyers movement and its associated turmoil.

The bond was a huge success with over subscription of seven times amounting to $ 3.5 billion while we were seeking only $500 million.

The spread was 180 basis points above US government ten year securities. As the lawyers movement continued to gain strength in mid 2007, the spread on the bonds jumped to 300 basis points in July and 400 basis points by November when the emergency was imposed. In December when BB was assassinated the spread jumped to 600 basis points. However, after the elections, the investor community welcomed the peaceful transition by pushing the spread down to 500 points. The stock market also reacted favorably and reached its highest point of 15700 in our history in April, 2008. Since then our chaotic politics and lack of focus on economic issues has led to the collapse of the stock market to 9000 points and the spread has jumped to almost a 1000 points. So what events produced these results, between April and now In the previous government we had been highly successful in crafting a very positive brand image of Pakistan as one of the fastest growing emerging economies in Asia. After our exit from the IMF program and a successful reforms. Investors favorably compared Pakistan to India, China and Vietnam.

Every time we did a road show we were highly successful in our endeavors whether it was the OGDC flotation or UBL GDR or Euro bonds or large privatizations, investors flocked to our offerings. We were a success story in the international financial markets and most of our issues became benchmark issues. Unfortunately, this Government has not been able to maintain Pakistan Brand rather it has eroded considerably.

In this erosion the first stone was foolishly cast by our erstwhile finance minister Mr. Ishaq Dar who displayed incredible irresponsibility and immaturity in lambasting the Pakistani economy in front of the global media; at a time when the global investment community was looking towards the new government for its economic vision and future strategy the new finance minister harangued them on how bad the Pakistan economy was. In spite of this onslaught the rating agencies maintained their ratings until as in their words the new government comes up with its economic game plan. The new government was at this time caught up in utter confusion on the economic direction of the country with rapid changes in the finance setup and revolving finance ministers.

This lack of focus was disastrous for us as against this back ground, our financing plan included a number of financial market transactions totaling around $ 4 billion that were ready for the road shows.

These included the National Bank, Habib Bank, and KAPCO. The exchangeable bond issue of OGDC, and the strategic sale of PSO shares along with management control. With the stock market at an all time high the transactions would have been a great success and the road shows would have generated tremendous good will for the new government and would have highlighted the smooth transition that happened in Pakistan. It would have been a great opportunity to showcase Pakistan in front of the international investment community.

Instead in an inexplicable move the Government cancelled all the transactions. Pakistan directly lost desperately needed inflows of $ 4 billion and with the rising oil import bill this loss placed a huge pressure on the reserves and the currency. Indirectly the loss was
probably twice as much as foreign investors withdrew to the sidelines and domestic investors moved their investments overseas. It might be mentioned that while the government failed to take advantage of the window of opportunity, The MCB bank taking advantage of the great valuations on the stock market in April 2008 privately placed some 20% of their equity with a Malaysian bank for a cool sum of $ 850 million. If the Government had acted similarly, it could have generated sufficient flows to prevent the meltdown which ensued.

Reserves drawdown would have been avoided, the spread on our international bonds would have narrowed down to May 2007 levels, borrowing from the State Bank would have been halved and the government would have had a stable environment for tackling the oil import bill and food inflation. Our current predicament is clearly a creation of our current economic miss-management. A few heads should have rolled because of this incredible lapse

What could have been done in April/May 2008 with the market at 15700 points cannot be done in September/ October 2008 with the market at 9100 points. The international markets are closed to us. We have to wait until our markets get back to their historical levels and investor confidence is restored. How will this be hieved?

The biggest challenge for President Zardari is to restore the eroded;Pakistan Brand; back to its original luster and in the process revive the investment flows that can sustain our growth going forward.

First, while we should be on the right side of the world in the war on terror, the world should seriously help us in our endeavor to build a better economic future for our people. The new president has to focus on the economic issues facing the country. His international
trips to China, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, USA, UK should promote Pakistan economic interests as a pivotal objective. He should not only promote government to government economic cooperation but also promote private sector to private sector interaction with these countries. We need strong, immediate and implement able commitments of around $5 billion balance of payment support from these countries. In addition their leadership at the highest levels should support international moves to promote our economic growth and stability. Better and preferential access to EU and USA markets, greater quotas for labor and deferred payments for oil in Saudi Arabia and Gulf region.

A full calendar of investment conferences and single country exhibitions need to be carried out under the direction of the president. The promotion of exports and investments has to be the major focus and objective of the President. If we can generate foreign investments greater than last year level of $ 8 billion and export growth is revived to healthy double digit levels we would start coming out of the current malaise

Second, it is clear that Pakistan growing trade and current account deficit is being driven by ever escalating oil prices. With the oil bill crossing 12 billion a year there is no option other than passing the full prices to the consumers and eliminate the burden on the budget. This will also help in promoting conservation and improving energy efficiency.

Unfortunately the transition to a new government took place at a time of unprecedented increase in global fuel prices. For example at the time of elections oil prices were around $80 a bbl whereas by July 2008 it had reached $140 a bbl.

While we had planned to limit the fiscal deficit to be under 6 percent and largely financing it from non state bank sources, including commercial bank borrowing and non debt sources. The new government ended up with a much higher deficit level and financed it totally from the state bank.

We have now reached a stage where the issue is no longer energy availability rather it is energy affordability. We have almost 20000 MW of power generation capacity but we are only using 12000 MW because the Furnace oil used for thermal generation has become extremely expensive and beyond the ability of Pepco to pay for. As a result
available capacity is not being used leading to load shedding.

The exorbitant power price increase can only be avoided in the short run if transmission and distribution losses are dramatically curtailed and in the medium term we substitute imported fuel with domestic sources. Thermal power based on imported oil costs around Rs 16 per unit (Kwh) whereas hydel power from Kalabagh would cost Rs 2 per unit.

The power from Thar coal will cost around Rs 8 per unit. While Kalabagh can be completed in five years, Technical problems with Thar coal can delay its availability indefinitely.

If the mega Kalabagh Dam is launched in 2008 it will not only jump start the economy it will also be seen as President Zardari;s gift of Hydel Power to Pakistan just like PM Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Gift of Nuclear Power to Pakistan thirty five years ago

Third, as far as inflation is concerned it will start coming under control as global oil and food prices filter through the economy.

Our Inflation index is heavily weighted in favor of food energy and commodity prices. So it is highly sensitive to these prices. Since global energy and food prices are easing the same should be felt in Pakistan in the days to come.

Pakistan ‘ s inflation is a supply side and cost push phenomenon and further monetary tightening would not help. Instead a tighter fiscal policy with a lower deficit target and phasing out of borrowing from the state bank will help. At the same time in this period of great change we should ensure that the poor of the poorest are able to cope with the changes particularly higher food prices and social safety nets are made fool proof so that nobody in Pakistan stays hungry.

Fourth, for the first time after 2nd world war agriculture commodity prices have moved in favor of the farmers. We have to ensure that we pass on this benefit of higher global prices to our farmers by deregulating agriculture prices. The only other incentive our farmers
need is predictable water supply. This can be ensured by building more water reservoirs and better water management so that farmers can move from unpredictable subsistence agriculture to commercial agriculture.

Study after study in the sub-continent has shown that large multi purpose dams are the quickest way out of poverty. With oil prices at $100 per barrel and destined to double over the next decade there is no way, other than developing our full hydel potential quickly to usher in a new green revolution and providing sustainable gobal advantage to our economy of cheap hydel power.

Fifth, we should stop cribbing about the Consumer economy. Pakistan is a large country with 160 million people and 100 million under the age of 25.

With dependency ratios going down we can reap a demographic dividend over the next several decades. While these youngster have to be prepared for the work force they are already becoming a huge engine of growth for our markets that are growing at fabulous rates to meet the demands of these Pakistani baby boomers, Just like in Europe and South Korea after the 2nd world war, our baby boomers will be the back bone of our middle class and will determine the growth of our economy over the next 40 years until they start to retire

This gives our businesses an historic opportunity to grow and produce the goods and services the population needs. In an era when world is facing a crisis of aging populations we are blessed with opportunities of a young and dynamic population. In this regard consumer financing which has become a butt of criticism has just scratched the surface.

In our country consumer finance is around 5 % of GDP whereas in the developed world it is over 100% of GDP. Consumer financing has a long way to go and along the way it will continue to be one of the engines of growth for us. Any ill founded moves to curtail the consumer economy will hamper the growth of our businesses. We are now going beyond textiles into engineering, electronics, chemicals, food processing, construction materials, real estate and many other sectors based on our domestic markets as these markets continue to expand we will reach economies of scale that will make our producers and the
large associated vendor industry competitive on a global scale and the same producers will be the base for diversifying our exports into more sophisticated and fast growing sectors of the world. Ultimately if our law and order permits and our national psyche adopts rules of
globalization, and globalization as our road to prosperity we will become one of the workshops of the world along with India and China.

Sixth, there are hundreds of infrastructure projects at various stages of implementation including the National trade corridor, Neelum Jhelum hydro power project, KKH upgradation, Urban renewal in Karachi and Lahore, mass transport projects, airports, Baluchistan road network,Gawadar port, industrial parks etc., these projects have to be completed on time and scope. The last government also created an Infrastructure project development facility (IPDF) that needs to be fully utilized so that we can bump up (almost double ) our expenditure on infrastructure particularly hydel projects through public private partnerships.
Seventh, The FBR has to continue generating revenues for the government to carry out the nation building programs. Last year a target of over 4 trillion rupees was set for FBR within the next ten years, four times the current levels reaching about 16 % of GDP. Along with a target of 4 percent of GDP for education expenditures with 1.5% allocated to university education. The education strategy was based on providing universal access to primary education, retaining enrollments into secondary education and technical and vocational training and improving standards at the college and university levels.

Nine new engineering universities in collaboration with European, Korean and Chinese universities were in the pipeline. Going forward we should focus on quality improvement through a big push forward in teacher training, curriculum development and public private
partnerships at the primary and secondary schools level and continued efforts to upgrade the universities and hopefully achieving the setup of the new engineering schools. The national vocational and technical education commission (NAVTEC) has gone through its learning curve and can now be used to upscale its programs to give technical and vocational training a quantum jump.

Eighth, in the financial sector we have created a world class banking system with our banks featuring amongst the leaders in Asia. The Quality of our bankers is second to none and can work in any global setting. The challenge is to further increase the reach and competitiveness of the financial sector with Microfinance playing a much greater role. Our microfinance frameworks are the best in the world and a strong base has been established which can grow manifold to bring financial services to the masses.

The growth of the financial sector will continue at a sizzling rate as the financial sector expands into consumer and housing finance, rural and agriculture finance and development of debt and bond markets, growth of mutual funds, pension funds and other savings instruments.

Ninth, in the competitiveness area we must continue to deregulate and privatize the economy to create a vibrant and competitive economy.

Second generation reforms in economic management have to be continued. An essential pillar of a private sector led market economy, the Competition Commission has to be given financial independence and allowed to work unhindered. The competitiveness support fund, business support fund, agriculture support fund, Khushal Pakistan fund, Smeda etc. have to be used to implement reforms that help the market economy become more productive and competitive from the grass roots level up to the corporate level.

Finally Pakistan needs to continue to grow at 7 to 8 percent to create the 3 to 4 million new jobs per year needed to accommodate our youth and create a dent in poverty in our lifetime. We cannot embrace isolationism, jihadism or any other form of global confrontationist movements.

Instead we have to build on our successes, unleash the potential of our people, exploit our competitive advantages, take advantage of global finance, integrate with global markets, and continue building a dynamic market economy with world class infrastructure to achieve our growth objectives This is the recipe for the future and the way forward for Pakistan.

APPENDIX A

NEEDS OF THE PAKISTANI NATION

Without a lot of ceremony, here is a list of requirements of the Pakistani nation:

1. For our role in the proxy wars of the past century Pakistanis deserve the following. Here a bill to be handed over to “the powers to be”.

2. We want Bullet Trains running from the Karakorum’s and beyond to Gwader and beyond.
3. We want a modern train system and underground railways for our cities.
4. We want Water and sewage lines in our major cities and our towns and villages.
5. We want 1000 proper schools for our children and we want $100 million
6. 2500 brand new world class hospitals. $ 1 Billion.
7. Compare to the USA: (Total Number of all U.S. registered hospitals: 5759
8. Total staffed beds in all U.S. registered hospitals: 955,768
9. Teach Urdu, English, Farsi, Arabic and Chinese in all schools. Also optional languages Punjabi, Kashmiri, Pahari, Hindkoh, Saraki, Pushto, Baluchi, Brahvi, Sindhi, Darri, Potohari. $ 50 million
10. We want 500 modern libraries spread all over the country. Build a library larger than the one in Alexandria. $250 million compare to 117,378 libraries in the USA
11. We want a Motorway system to link all cities of Pakistan, North and South, East and West. $10 billion
12. We need 10 new major airports linked by High Speed Trains. $10 Billion
13. We want 50 million “$100 computers” for Pakistanis in Urdu and all local languages. $100 million
14. We want “kachi abadis” to disappear from our cities. We want to see skyscraper and government housing for all the poor who can be used for labor to build the building. $ 5 Billion
15. We want 100 power plants to eliminate the shortage of electricity in the country.$ 500 million
16. We want 5 major dams and 100 minor dams to prevent the acute water shortage in the country. $ 500 million
17. We want 100 ships for the Pakistan National Shipping Corporation so that Pakistan can become a major sea faring nation able to handle the trade. $ 5 Billion
18. We have to quadruple the yield for our Cotton, Milk and Wheat production benchmarked against the USA, Australia and Canada. $1 Billion
19. Get ship load of Sri Lankan teachers to eliminate illiteracy in Pakistan. $ 10 million
20. Get boatloads of Malaysian manufacturers to setup electronic manufacturing in Pakistan
21. Get train loads of Koreans to build 10 new planned cities in Pakistan. $ 10 Billion
22. Get a plane load of the Swiss to build world class ski resorts and amusement parks and develop our archeological sites as wonders of the world. $ 2 Billion
23. Get busloads of Chinese to build industrial parks in Pakistan. $ 10 Billion
24. We want to reclaim millions of acres of desert in Baluchsitan for our future generations. $ 3 Billion
25. And Oh! Yes Northern Areas are part and parcel of Pakistan not to be bartered away to anyone. Don’t even think of giving up Kashmir!
26. Does this list look expensive? Not really. The cost of all this is in the league of $38 Billion that was offered to Turkey for transit rights into Iraq, which the Turkish parliament turned down. Even if it double or triple that amount, we deserve it.
LET US FOCUS ONLY ON EDUCATION FOR STARTERS:
1) Malaysia focused on primary schools, and Ghana focused on Higher education. For the first 20 years after independence Malaysia did not build any universities at all. Malaysia built primary and secondary schools. The results have shown phenomenal growth for education in Malaysia and dismal results in Ghana.
2) Sri Lanka a country ridden with an ongoing civil war as well as penury stricken population and poverty laden infrastructure was able to life the country out of illiteracy and today has the highest literacy rates in Asia as well one of the highest literacy rates in the world.
3) Abdus Sattar Edhi lives in a corrupt society where the government in unable and unwilling to provide social benefits to its population. Abdus Sattar Edhi runs a fleet of more than 500 ambulances, helicopters and planes. He also has orphanages, women’s shelters, and provides death and burial services to the poor in all urban centers of Pakistan. He is scrupulously honest. He has received many international awards and boasted that his personal account has more than $85 million. Edhi sleeps in his office and wears the clothes donated by the family of a dead person for 10 days

His organization needs to be duplicated.

4) Bangladesh after the trauma of 1971 asked all of its graduates to devote 1 year of their lives. They would only receive a degree if they made sure that two illiterate people would become literate. Paksitan should force all intermediate to educate 5 people and all graduates to educate and make literate 10 people before they can get degrees. NADRA should ensure that there is no duplication of people and there is no fraud.
5) Cuba is one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. It also has one of the best and most comprehensive medical systems in the world. All Cubans are educated and have good medical attention. Hundreds of Cuban volunteers stayed in Pakistan in the earthquake. Cuba and Pakistan established diplomatic relations and Cuba offered 1000 fully paid scholarships to Pakistanis. This system has to be institutionalized and Pakistan needs to learn from Cuba.
6) Karachi has one of the highest literacy in the nation. All Karachi schools run in double shifts and have been running on double shifts for more than 40 years. The Muhajirs have almost a 100% literacy rate. All Pakistani government schools must run on double shifts.
7) Bangladesh developed Grameen Bank. A lot of this has been discussed on this, but the fact remains that this is the “Committee system” used by urban and rural housewives for generations. Grameen offers small loans, mainly to women. Grameen boasts a non-existent default rate because the five or ten members in the “committee” depend on the person to return the loan. This has improved the conditions of the poorest.
8) Turkey has used the capitalist system to eliminate “katchi abadis”, by developing partnerships with the public and private sectors. All the residents of a “katchi abadi” are registered. This list is frozen. Some elected representatives are chosen to work with the government for regularization of the land. The land is used as collateral to get a load to build a new village which includes a) a school b) a hospital c) a shopping mall d) a mosque e) and a high rise building which provides basic amnesties to all the residents. The “katchi abadi” residents cannot sell the land or the building. This goes into a trust. The shops generate funds for the community and a certain number of apartments are sold to the general public and rented to the general public to generate funds for the building. All “katchi abadi” residents thus get decent housing, eyesores are eliminated from the cities, and the venture is commercially feasible.
9) A list needs to be generated of all government run schools. These need to be mapped. All ghost schools need to be listed and identified in a database posted on the internet.
10) Every district has to be identified where schools do not exist.
11) A central Education Emergency Center (EEC)* office needs to be established in every district to create lists of all illiterate persons in the district. The EEC office also lists all children in the district, especially the mother of girls in a database. * Need to think of a good name IN URDU & LOCAL LANGUAGES FOR THE EEC.
12) The EEC Iqra (Insaf *** R*** Area) sets up adult literacy training to all the mothers and adults as well as the children.
13) The EEC establishes schools in one room homes or open air schools, and even under peepal trees or tents. Initially the EEC may use government buildings to train adults and mothers and children in the 2nd shift. As funding becomes available the schools will have an infrastructure. Where possible, the EEC schools will build its own schools
14) The EEC establishes FM radio network and a TV channel for adult education. Australian children who cannot commute to schools used to be taught via CB radios and HAM radios. Today this can and must be established via the internet.
15) Many organizations have created products for the 3rd world a) Hand cranked laptops hooked to network by peer-to-peer network b) solar ovens c) solar powered refrigerator d) cheap toilets d) biogas generators e) wind power tube wells. All of these and others have to listed, prioritized and used in the EEC centers
16) The EEC must set up votechnical centers to teach adults and children basic skills in a) plumbing b) woodworking/carpentry c) electrical works d) computer assembly e) Improving harvesting techniques f) Supply chain improvement and Storage improvement of vegetables and fruits g) Identification of better seeds, and informing farmers about the better seeds to improve per hector yields h)

Protected: Indian policy towards USA

December 21, 2008 in India | Tags: , | Enter your password to view comments

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:


Protected: US policy towards Afghanistan

December 21, 2008 in USA | Tags: , | Enter your password to view comments

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:


US policy towards India

December 21, 2008 in USA | Tags: , | Leave a comment

Protected: US policy towards Pakistan

December 21, 2008 in USA | Tags: , | Enter your password to view comments

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:


For PTI SZI

Created for PTI SZI: Click here

Categories

Watch videos at Vodpod and other videos from this collection.

 

February 2010
M T W T F S S
« Dec    
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.